FEATURED
Credit Workbench
I wanted to see exactly where a levered credit breaks — so I built an engine that computes the downside and lets you stress it live.
CompleteLaunch →
Finance · Analytical systems · Research
I don't build models to predict the future. I build them to understand what breaks first.
Understanding comes first. Software is simply the medium.
Private credit
Private equity
Capital structures
Portfolio analytics
M&A
Start here
NEW · Distress Lens method published — July 2026
Selected work
Things I've built
Each one starts with a question I couldn't answer in a spreadsheet. They're three parts of the same enquiry, not three side projects.
Distress Lens
Loans carried as performing while the fund's own marks say otherwise. A public-filings investigation into the gap — method published, result to follow.
In progressRead the method →
Credit thesis
A written investment memo on a single name — the piece where the judgment does the work and the model just supports it.
PlannedOn the bench
More questions than projects
New explorations land here as I chase them down. If you're working on an interesting financial problem, that's often where the next one starts.
Start a conversationHow I think
A framework for every analysis
01Question
Start with a real problem worth understanding.
02Framework
Break it into core drivers.
03Model
Translate it into deterministic logic.
04Stress
Change assumptions; find the breaking points.
05Interpret
Derive the insight that matters.
06Communicate
Make it clear, concise and honest.
Questions I'm exploring
What actually determines how much covenant flexibility a lender gives up?
When does leverage stop creating value and start destroying it?
How much do capital-structure choices change what recovers in a default?
How should portfolio-level credit risk actually be visualised?
I'm always chasing a new question.
If you're working on something interesting, I'd like to hear about it.
If you're working on something interesting, I'd like to hear about it.
Principles that guide my work
Deterministic over opaque
If I can't explain the number, I don't use it.
Explain before predict
Understanding today beats a forecast I can't defend.
Every assumption visible
A model is only as honest as the assumptions behind it.
Judgment over automation
AI does the work; the judgment stays mine.
Mistakes published
The Distress Lens method page lists what I got wrong, and what changed after.
About
Most of my work sits in leveraged finance and private markets — capital structures, covenants, and who is exposed to what when a credit turns.
Whenever I hit a financial problem that feels difficult to reason about, I tend to end up building something to understand it — sometimes a model, sometimes code, sometimes both. The goal is never the software. It's the understanding.
Let's talk about finance, models or ideas.
I value a thoughtful conversation over networking. If you're working on an interesting problem — or you think differently about an assumption I've made — I'd genuinely like to hear about it.